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Plug-in Hybrids and Open Source

Moving Mountains

A small group of individuals and some small, specialized companies [see CalCars poster in right hand column] have been gaining increasing public visibility in their push to entice major auto manufacturers to begin producing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEV]. More recently some very large corporate entities have joined the chorus, Southern California Edison will be using Ford Escape vehicles and even PE&G will see power sold back from one Google test fleet vehicles. In contrast, the major automobile manufactures stumbled unintentionally into the spot light. GM introduced a model to show it retained some design prowess, the response was far greater than that corporation expected. Moreover, the response has driven them much further in a direction that a significant fraction of the corporation does not wish to travel. For Toyota's part it found itself entangled just by seeming to be the leading exponent of conventionally powered hybrid vehicles. I think they could have been just as happy selling overpriced, too large pickups with a higher profit margins. Neither GM's nor Toyota's heart is in this venture, but neither has found a graceful means to exit.

Where is the Road Map?

My interest here is not in the big players being pulled along by forces they cannot control. My sense is this might be viewed in hindsight as a world changing event that pushes us from centralized controlled large scale commercial production to a more distributed model. The most significant factor might be the enabling role of the afore-mentioned lobbying groups. They are the ones that brought attention to the pilot projects. It is the latter with their tremendous open documentation that further points to where conversion can be obtained the key to making the populous less willing to await the giants' attention.

Open Source at Its Best

For those that take the time, scan the do it your instructions then read the detail risk assessment with its list of best and worst components. Their honesty is shocking:

  " ... using the best and most cost-effective PbA modules we 
  could find, a PbA PHEV is neither economically nor operationally 
  up to par. But as of now, it is the only relatively inexpensive 
  way to own and drive a real PHEV.

and this:

  "This conversion will no doubt void parts of Toyota’s warranty.
  U.S. law prohibits aftermarket modifications from voiding any part 
  of a vehicle’s warranty except for problems specifically caused by 
  the modification. If repair of the OEM battery, transaxle, or other 
  parts of the hybrid system becomes necessary, Toyota may argue that 
  the PHEV modification has caused the problem. The outcome is 
  uncertain, see also our Warranty article."

Personally, I would trust an entity showing as much respect for the potential purchaser over any of the major auto manufactures or their representatives. Given the choice I would opt for the independent. I suspect after watching the slow march to the PHEV by the majors I would not be alone in this assessment.

[Further documentation list is at the bottom of the page of this link.]

Smaller, Quicker to Market Manufacturing

If Tesla Motors meets their projected production schedule of a roadster in 2008, their WhiteStar in 2009 - 2010 and the BlueStar in 2012 at their estimated price ranges some of the majors could be in for a hard time. If the Tesla owners then resist the offers of buyout, they could end up picking the bones of a few majors. It will be likely others will do similar, long term damage even to the outsourced production lines in operation a half world away. Rising transportation costs will not be easily absorbed by the world players, particularly with late and inferior product lines.

What Can a Major Do?

It is long past the time for the big auto makers to have acted. Despite the words, GM saying the Volt [PEHV] will be in production in 2010 and Toyota touting their road testing along with prototypes of PEHV in the U.S. by 2009 seems extracted from both under duress. Many of the other major auto manufactures are even worse, e.g. Ford remains steadfastly indecisive and many others were belligerently skeptical of even the practicality of the hybrid vehicles. While many have changed their outward tunes played to the public, I cannot but believe that many within still cling to that view. Electric vehicles are beyond the ken of many of those in charge, hence, until better informed individuals take their place, their actions will be minimal.

What Does the Future Hold?

Perhaps I am an incurable optimist, however, by their delay conventional manufacturing will lose some its luster. Better informed buyers may opt out of the inferior offerings or nothing may change. Nonetheless, I think the odds are against the latter. Moreover, open sourcing will push it away from business as usual model.

Another in the Series

"Letters to C.E.O.s" However, I doubt any of the leaders of either GM or Toyota (or other major auto manufacturers) would be concerned about the ideas expressed here. In a sense I hope they maintain that stance. It would be nice that not too many are fooled by their late rush into a product line they find disgusting. Perhaps their haste when obviously late will convince many of those watching these characters care little for the real needs of the population. Despite evidence to the contrary, even in the U.S. there are limits to the degree of stupidity that is acceptable.

Corrections, suggested extensions or comments: TxtEdMacs. If your mailto system fails use: TxtEdMacs [- At -] BST- SoftwareDevs (dot) com.

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* Originally published on the Open Source Today site August 14, 2007. Content may have been altered prior to being moved onto Web Site Developers.